DIES IRAE DIES ILLA
September
11, 2001 - America's day of wrath and mourning
Dies irae,dies illa
Solsvet saeclum in favilla
Teste David cum
Sybilla
Day of wrath and day of mourning
David's word
with Sibyl's blending
Heaven and earth in ashes ending.
Oh what fear man's bosom rendeth
when from heaven the Judge decendeth
On whose sentence all dependeth
Death is struck and nature quaking
All creation is awaking
to its Judge an answer making
THE CIA RESPONDS
FOUR ALTERNATIVE GLOBAL FUTURES
In September-October 1999, the NIC initiated work on Global Trends
2015 by cosponsoring,with Department of State/lNR and CIA's Global
Futures Project two unclassified workshops
on Alternative Global Futures: 2000-2015. The
workshops brought together several dozen gov-
ernment and nongovernment specialists in a
wide range of fields.
The first workshop identified major factors and
events that would drive global change through
2015. It focused on demography, natural
resources, science and technology, the global
economy, governance, social/cultural identities,
and conflict and identified main trends and
regional variations. These analyses became the
basis for subsequent elaboration in Global
Trends 2015.
The second workshop developed,four alterna-
tive global futures in which these drivers would
interact in different ways through 2015. Each
scenario was intended to construct a plausible,
policy-relevant story of how this future might
evolve: highlighting key uncertainties, disconti-
nuities, and unlikely or "wild card" events, and
identifying important policy and intelligence
challenges.
Scenario One: Inclusive Globalization:
A virtuous circle develops among technology,
economic growth, demographic factors, and
effective governance, which enables a majority
of the world's people to benefit from globaliza-
tion. Technological development and diffu-
sion-in some cases triggered by severe
environmental or health crises-are utilized to
grapple effectively with some problems of the
developing world. Robust global economic
growth-spurred by a strong policy consensus
on economic liberalization-diffuses wealth
widely and mitigates many demographic and
resource problems. Governance is effective at
both the national and international levels. In
many countries, the state's role shrinks, as its
functions are privatized or performed by pub-
lic-private partnerships, while global coopera-
tion intensifies on many issues through a
variety of international arrangements. Conflict
is minimal within and among states benefiting
from globalization. A minority of the world's
people-in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle
East, Central and South Asia, and the Andean
region-do not benefit from these positive
changes, and internal conflicts persist in and
around those countries left behind.
Scenario Two: Pernicious Globalization
Global elites thrive, but the majority of the
world's population fails to benefit from globalization.
Population growth and resource
scarcities place heavy burdens on many developing
countries, and migration becomes a
major source of interstate tension. Technologies not only fail to address the problems of
developing countries but also are exploited by
negative and illicit networks and incorporated
into destabilizing weapons. The global economy splits
into three: growth continues in
developed countries; many developing countries
experience low or negative per capita
growth, resulting in a growing gap with the
developed world; and the illicit economy grows dramatically.
Governance and political leadership are weak at both
the national and internationallevels.
Internal conflicts increase, fueled by
frustrated expectations, inequities, and heightened
communal tensions; Weapons of Mass Destruction proliferate
and are used in at least one internal conflict.
Scenario Three: Regional Competition
Regional identities sharpen in Europe, Asia, and the
Americas, driven by growing political resistance in
Europe and East Asia to US global preponderance
and US-driven globalization and each region's increasing preoccupation
with its own economic and political priorities.
There is an uneven diffusion of technologies,
reflecting differing regional concepts of intellectual
property and attitudes towards biotechnology.
Regional economic integration in trade and
finance increases, resulting in both fairly
high levels 'of economic growth and rising regional competition.
Both the state and institutions of regional governance thrive in major
developed and emerging market countries, as
governments recognize the need to resolve
pressing regional problems and shift responsibilities
from global to regional institutions. Given the
preoccupation of the three major
regions with their own concerns, countries outside
these regions in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and
Central and South Asia have few places to turn
for resources or political support.
Military conflict among and within the three major regions does not materialize, but t
internal conflicts increase in and around other countries
left behind.
Scenario Four: Post-Polar World
US domestic preoccupation increases as the US
economy slows, then stagnates. Economic and
political tensions with Europe grow, the US-
European alliance deteriorates as the United
States withdraws its troops, and Europe turns
inward, relying on its own regional institutions.
At the same time, national governance crises
create instability in Latin America, particularly
in Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, and Panama, .:
forcing the United States to concentrate on the
region. Indonesia also faces internal crisis and
risks disintegration, prompting China to provide
the bulk of an ad hoc peacekeeping force.
Otherwise, Asia is generally prosperous and
stable, permitting the United States to focus
elsewhere. Korea's normalization and de facto
unification proceed, China and Japan provide
the bulk of external financial support for
Korean unification, and the United States
begins withdrawing its troops from Korea and
Japan. Over time, these geostrategic shifts
unite longstanding national rivalries among the
Asian powers, triggering increased military
preparations and hitherto dormant or covert
WMD programs. Regional and global instituions
prove irrelevant to the evolving conflict
situation in Asia, as China issues an ultimatum
to Japan to dismantle its nuclear program and
Japan-invoking its bilateral treaty with the
US--calls for US reengagement in Asia under
adverse circumstances at the brink of a major
war. Given the priorities of Asia, the Americas,
and Europe, countries outside these regions are '
marginalized, with virtually no sources of
political or financial support.
Generalizations Across the Scenarios
The four scenarios can be grouped in two pairs:
the first pair contrasting the "positive" and
"negative" effects of globalization; the second
pair contrasting intensely competitive but not
conflictual regionalism and the descent into
regional military conflict.
In all but the first scenario, globalization does
not create widespread global cooperation.
Rather, in the second scenario, globalization's
negative effects promote extensive dislocation and
conflict, while in the third and
fourth, they spur regionalism.
In all four scenarios, countries negatively
affected by population growth, resource scarcities
and bad governance, fail to benefit from
globalization, are prone to internal conflicts,
and risk state failure.
In all four scenarios, the effectiveness of
national, regional, and international governance
and at least moderate but steady eco-
nomic growth are crucial.