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The Blue Green Revolution |
Based on a parallel economic analysis, they predicted OTEC would become competitive in 4 markets over 5 to 10 years: First small island nations in the South Pacific or Molokai using small (1 MW) OTEC: Second, territories such as Guam and American Samoa using 10 MW plants; Third, some Hawaiian Islands with 50 MW or larger plants: Fourth, floating OTEC plants and large floating plantships. Indeed they saw Pacific and Asian islands offering a large market for 1 MW to 100 MW OTEC plants. Without major breakthroughs but with intensified R&D, at least 350 MW could be provided by OTEC by year 2010, 2100 MW by 2030. Production of methanol and hydrogen for transportation could raise this by a factor of five to the 10GW range.
However the team inserted a strong qualifier. To achieve this level of development and application of technology, they saw the need for a six fold increase R&D expenditure over the decade.
Under the intensified R&D scenario, a research support program was assumed during the immediate five-year period (1990-1995) for the development of:
In the latter part of the 1990s, undertake:
The team saw this intensified research as a great investment, providing accelerated opportunities for U.S. industries in the potentially large international markets. Plainly these eminent laboratories were excited about the possibilities and wanted a piece of the action. Indeed they saw nothing ahead but success particularly as the full ramification of systems use of the deep ocean water resource was implemented.
The problem was that by the late 1980's all the monies allocated for deep ocean water research had been expended and no more was forthcoming, particularly no six fold increase in R&D expenditure for the 1990's. Since agencies are opportunistic feeders, agency interest plummeted to zero.
Enter a small but irrepressible entity-- John P. Craven and Common Heritage Enterprises, later to become Common Heritage Corporation. Operating primarily with his entitlements, he created a cold agriculture desert garden, later to become a cooperative garden and finally the 3rd world demonstration garden many of you have seen earlier today. I joined him in 1995 and Dr. Phil Helfrich came aboard in 1997.
By passing deep cold ocean water through the soil in pipes, John Craven and his gardeners, first any Kona resident who wanted to try, then Kevin Sue Rohan and finally Kathleen Delate and John Biloon, a great deal of evidence has been developed pointing to the remarkable possibilities of this form of agriculture for the coastal deserts of the tropical, subtropical and even warmer temperate areas of the world. First it appears almost any temperate climate crop can be grown. Over 100 have been produced. Second, it appears that the combination of cool soil for the roots and tropical sunshine can accelerate growth and sugar content and to a degree even offset impacts of seasonality on growth (length of day). Third, condensation produced by the presence of the cool soil can produce most of the water needed by the plants (probably all the water requirements of many plants). Fourth, by manipulating the use of cold ocean water to simulate spring and temporary desert drought conditions, i.e., turning off the cold water for a period, plants can be forced into dormancy. With the restoration of the cool root environment, dormancy is broken and the plant reenters it's production cycle. This was demonstrated conclusively with a pear tree that was induced to blossom and fruit 4 times in what would normally be a single season, retaining and continuing to grow the previous fruit each time.
It should also be noted that these remarkable developments have all been achieved with organic gardening techniques and with technologies available to most of the poorest 3rd world countries.
Until the past year there has been little recognition of the magnitude of these achievements even in Hawaii. In spite of outreach consisting of an outstanding web page chronicling these developments, an superb article in the New York Times by Science Writer Bill Broad in 1992, A Cold AG Workshop in 1992 sponsored by CHC, University of Hawaii and University of California Sea Grant and numerous smaller but all complimentary news and magazine articles, few people have stepped forward to help or to use the technologies.
Some have tended to view these results with scepticism, insisting the evidence is largely anecdotal. We can only say we have grown these crops, we have seen (and tasted) the evidence, as have the many visitors to our garden and we have much photographic evidence. We would very much like to have some definitive scientific experiments, but we have not been able to raise enough money to finance these. We, together with the late Senator Matsuura, tried to raise money to have the University of Hawaii do a 3-year experiment with temperate fruits. We were unsuccessful and have now lost this window of opportunity as we been notified that NELHA has withdrawn the option. With the exception of Dr. Kathleen Delate of the CHC Board, no agricultural scientist has been willing to step outside the conventional paradigm and risk any of their resources or reputations for a new order of things, echoing Machiavelli:
Or John Craven:
Still we can say with confidence that with the present level of achievements of the CHC's 3rd World Demonstration Garden, the beginning of next "Green Revolution" is clearly in sight. John Craven and I helped launch the Blue Revolution now under way at NELHA in the early 1980's with our support of the first "proof of concept" experiments to utilize not only the cold, but also the rich nutrients in the cold deep ocean water in fish and sea vegetable production..
Coldbed agriculture and deep ocean water aquaculture still don't necessarily add up to our ultimate goal of fully economically and environmentally sustainable coastal desert communities. However when these are included in a system sequentially utilizing the cold properties in desalination, air conditioning and industrial cooling, coldbed agriculture and aquaculture and recovering condensate whenever it is economical to do so, this becomes a very cost effective process. And all this without OTEC. We can confidently claim that in spite of the U.S. and other governments turning off funding for deep ocean water R&D, CHC together with the staff and clients of the NELHA has launched the Blue-Green Revolution.
This is a revolution that, using the world's last, great, essentially untapped resource, can greatly enhance the quality of lives of millions who now live with little hope. And can do so in a fully environmentally sustainable fashion. In the words of the Prophet Isaiah:
Back to Blue-Green Renaissance Proceedings page.